I already covered the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) math proficiency rates and gaps picture for Grade 4 students in Jefferson County Public Schools (JCPS). Now let’s examine the NAEP Grade 8 Math Assessment results.

Figure 1 shows the percentages of white and Black students in JCPS that scored At or Above Proficient.

Figure 1

As you review this, keep in mind, as we recently reported, there is increased reason to consider the NAEP’s proficiency level as an indication that students in at least the eighth grade are on track to be ready for college and careers. Students who don’t reach this performance level are more likely to face challenges in adulthood.

Looking first at the blue line, which shows white students’ performance, we see that JCPS’ white students have never broken even the 40% level of proficiency on the NAEP. But things certainly regressed in 2022, probably mostly due to COVID.

Previous math proficiency rates for 2015, 2017 and 2019 are statistically significantly higher than the 2022 rate for whites of only 28%. In fact, the 2022 NAEP Math proficiency rate for JCPS’ white students is the lowest ever since the district started to participate in the NAEP in 2009.

Now, check out the orange line, which shows Black student performance. Even though fewer Black students in JCPS means there are higher statistical sampling errors in their scores, the 2022 Black math proficiency rate is still statistically significantly lower than it was in 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2019.

In fact, the truly dismal Black student NAEP Grade 8 Math proficiency of just 4% in 2022 is shocking, even with COVID.

Regarding the achievement gaps in the proficiency rates, no prior gap is statistically significantly different from the gap in 2022.

The really big issue here is that even with reductions in the numbers of students sampled, down in the JCPS samples from 1,200 to 900 between 2019 and 2022, the decays in performance for 2022 for both whites and Blacks are so large that both are statistically significantly lower than in prior years.

There are also concerns at the other end of the NAEP scale, namely those students who scored Below NAEP Basic. Figure 2 has that story.

Figure 2

When you look at Figure 2, it is important to keep in mind that because this is data for the lowest-performing NAEP group, we want the numbers to decrease, not increase. But that isn’t what has happened as of 2022.

Also, as is true with all gap information, there is a notable gap between white students and Black students scoring Below NAEP Basic. In this case, however, the Black students’ line appears above the white students’ line because a higher percentage of Blacks perform at this very low level.

And, performing Below NAEP Basic is performing at a very low level. NAEP documentation tells us students performing Below Basic have less than even just a partial mastery of math. These students are basically very weak performers.

Looking at the orange line for Black student percentages scoring in the NAEP Below Basic area, we see the results for nearly every prior year to 2022 are statistically significantly different. The 2022 rise in the percentage of Black students scoring Below Basic in NAEP Grade 8 Math isn’t just a statistical sampling anomaly – it’s a real decay in performance.

The percentage of JCPS’ white students scoring Below Basic has been relatively constant and none of the prior years’ results are statistically different from the 2022 figure. Still, it looks like about one out of three white students in JCPS scores in NAEP’s lowest achievement level, and that is a real problem.

Stepping back to take in the big picture, there clearly are major problems with the teaching of math in Kentucky’s largest school district. When less than one in three white students and only a dismal 4% of Black students are reading proficiently after 30 plus years of traditional school-based education reforms in Kentucky, it is time to try other things.

Other options, such as school choice, need to be in the mix, because the current situation just isn’t acceptable.

Tech Notes: The scores and information about statistical significance came from the NAEP Data Explorer.

Information about the NAEP sample sizes for 2019 came from Table M_TableA-4 in here.

The 2022 sample size information came from Page 4 in here.