Now that I explained in an earlier blog why you cannot get a good picture of Kentucky’s true performance on the ACT college entrance test versus other states by only looking at overall average scores, let’s examine how the Bluegrass State’s white students stacked up against whites in the 17 other states where 100 percent of the graduates took this test in 2016. Information on which states did 100 percent testing is found on Pages 14 and 15 in the ACT’s “Condition of College & Career Readiness 2016, Nation” report.

It's important to do such comparisons only with states like Kentucky that test all students, as in many states the ACT is an optional test selected by students and there's no valid random sample-type score data available for those states.

It's also important to break the data out by race, as we explained in our previous blog that examined the Kentucky and Louisiana 2016 scores.

The following graph tells part of the story about Kentucky’s performance.

At first look, you might be pleased that Kentucky, while ranking fairly low, isn’t at the bottom of the heap for 2016. However, some things are going on that moderate this picture a bit. Click the “Read more” link to see how Kentucky matches up against states that have similar levels of experience with 100 percent testing of graduates with the ACT.

First, ACT reported a sharp rise in the number of states testing 100 percent of all graduates in 2016, which includes all public, private and homeschool graduates. Only nine states tested all their graduates with the ACT only three years ago.

So, while we see some improvement from Kentucky’s last place ranking last year, when 13 states tested all of their grads, two of the four states that did worse than Kentucky in 2016 – South Carolina and Nevada – were not among the 13 that tested all graduates last year.

The other two states that performed worse than Kentucky -- Alabama and Mississippi -- have not tested all of their graduates for very long, either. Neither tested all graduates back in 2013.

So, all four states that Kentucky outscored in 2016 are relative newcomers to the 100 percent ACT testing state group. These states might still be experiencing start-up issues with statewide ACT testing. They might produce better scores in following years once their students move up on the “new test learning curve.” In fact, after Kentucky adopted 100 percent testing with its graduates in 2009, the scores actually went down in 2010. Improvement didn’t start until 2011 for the Bluegrass State.

So, let’s look at how Kentucky performed in 2013 and 2016 against the other eight states that tested 100 percent of their graduates with the ACT in both years. These states all have a fair amount of ACT experience as of 2016.

This next graph shows what happened in 2013.

As you can see, Kentucky was alone in last place with the lowest score for whites back in 2013.

Now, the next graph shows how these nine states performed in 2016.

Among the nine states with a relatively long experience with ACT testing of all graduates, Kentucky is tied for last place in 2016. That’s not much improvement.

Hopefully, as time goes on in the future, Kentucky will be able to hold its own against states like Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina and Nevada. However, experience shows that after states adopt 100 percent testing with the ACT, it takes a while before they fully adjust and start to see score improvements. These four states may still be in their adjustment period as of 2016, so Kentucky cannot rest on even its very modest 2016 ACT laurels.

One thing is very certain: despite a lot of claims you have been hearing lately about Kentucky moving above the middle-of-the-pack for educational performance – once we allow for the Simpson’s Paradox issue and break the ACT results out by race, Kentucky’s whites clearly don’t perform anywhere near the middle of the pack on the ACT Composite Score as of 2016. And, don’t forget, Kentucky’s whites make up a very large percentage of the state’s overall graduate population in 2016.

Tech Note: All scores come from Table 1.5 in each state’s ACT Profile Report for 2016, available from links here.

(Minor update to add direct link, August 24, 2016 at 12:10 pm)