What the Kindergarten readiness figures might really show

A big stir was generated at the Kentucky Board of Education meeting earlier this week when it was announced that preliminary data show only 25 percent of the state’s entering Kindergarten class is ready for school.

Before going further, I want to emphasize that this shocking figure is only a preliminary estimate. It comes from a new readiness test that was piloted this year with 34,500 entering public school children in Kentucky. Because only around two-thirds of the state’s Kindergarteners took this assessment, the results can only be considered approximate and could change notably when full use of the school readiness assessment starts next year.

However, aside from possible questions about the real suitability and accuracy of the new readiness assessment, the AP’s news release says at least one board member jumped on the new statistic to push for more action on preschools.

Well, I think we need to take a more careful look at the data, first. For one thing, there are numerous reports on the federal Head Start preschool program that show whatever advantages might be provided to its participants tend to vanish in early elementary school grades.

In addition, no one knows much about the 25 percent of Kentucky’s students who were ready for school. Were these mostly kids who went to a preschool or mostly kids who stayed at home? The Kentucky Department of Education is still gathering data that can tell us more.

A few of the many questions about the new readiness data that are still to be answered include:

• What proportion of the prepared students got preschool programs such as Head Start or a state-funded program?

• What proportion of the prepared students stayed home with a stay-at-home parent in their preschool years?

• What proportion of the unprepared students got preschool programs?

• What proportion of the unprepared students didn’t get preschool?

Other obvious questions include exploring whether the proportion of students who are prepared is higher in preschool students or in those students who don’t go to a preschool.

In any event, if only 25 percent of our Kindergarteners are really ready to enter school, even the limited data currently available implies a large proportion of the existing preschool programs are not doing their job.

By the way, I contacted the unit at the Kentucky Department of Education that conducts the readiness program. They quickly pointed out, again, that the 25 percent figure is only a preliminary estimate. The department personnel are well aware of the limitations in this number and agree that it is too soon to make any sort of dramatic plans based only on this preliminary data.

I hope that message to hold your horses gets out to some of the state’s more energetic universal preschool supporters. One story most likely buried in the preliminary 25 percent readiness statistic is that we have a lot of things to fix in our existing preschool programs before we try to expand those programs even further. I may have more on that in the next few days.